Fantasy Catchers: Five and Six Category Rankings

We are taking a step back from total points to bring in the other side of fantasy coverage by looking at five and six category formats. We will go back and hit catcher, first base, and second base before moving on to third basemen. There is always tension between looking back and looking forward when it comes to ranking players. When you choose one or the other you end up skewing the results.

I tend to be someone that likes looking back. Past is usually prologue in this business and while you can never completely count on past results, you often find them more reliable than future projections. We will cover those when they come out later this season, but now we are trying something new. Those of you that have followed me at know I like to tinker and I’ve done it again.

So, what you will see is the latest example of tinkering for me. I am taking the rate at which players produced over the past three years and projecting that over 500, 400, or 300 plate appearances (for catchers) depending on how much we might project them to play. Projections are based on health history and that particular team’s catcher situations. If a player is a free agent we simply project how much he will play based on history. We are including walks as a sixth category to cover six category leagues.

Gary Sanchez—New York Yankees

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .252/32 HR/74 Runs/84 RBI/2 SB

6 Category: 61 walks

Last season’s injury troubles are not likely to happen again. However, more than a few of us were burned by them. So, still consider him the best catcher on the board, but they may have to be creative to get him to 500 plate appearances. Sanchez has had his share of defensive issues, so they may want to start Austin Romine more often.

Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .298/10 HR/60 Runs/59 RBI/ 5 SB

6 Category: 53 walks

Posey is one of two guys on the board that might push 600 plate appearances because of his time at first base. Furthermore, this might be his last season behind the dish. There is always a tension that comes between getting maximum defensive value from a player and preserving his offensive skill set. Posey’s power has diminished due to the bumps and bruises that come with catching. Hip surgery may help him rediscover some of that, but he is not the force he used to be.

Willson Contreras—Chicago Cubs

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .266/18 HR/54 Runs/66 RBI/4 SB

6 Category: 51 walks

The talk of the offseason has the Cubs potentially looking for J.T. Realmuto. Contreras might be a piece going the other way. Hogwash. Obviously, rankings here are based on past results and Realmuto might very well be better than this in reality, but by how much? I’d leave well enough alone if I was them.

Yasmani Grandal—Free Agent

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .239/25 HR/57 Runs/69 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 61 walks

Obviously, there is a lot that is unknown here. We can surmise that he won’t be back in Los Angeles. That might be a benefit to him offensively depending on where he lands. Ultimately, we would expect him to be the primary catcher wherever he lands based on the offensive and defensive production, but if the club has a strong second catcher he could drop to 400 plate appearances.

J.T. Realmuto—Miami Marlins

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .286/15 HR/62 Runs/58 RBI/7 SB

6 Category: 31 walks

We reach our first controversial ranking in the battle between past results and future projections. For one, he traditionally has more than 500 plate appearances because he also plays 10-20 games at first base. For another, he has been steadily improving each and every year. So, these composite results over the past three seasons might be obsolete. He also plays in a horrible hitters park. So, if he does indeed get traded he could be better on all counts.

Yadier Molina—St. Louis Cardinals

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .282/14 HR/54 Runs/67 RBI/5 SB

6 Category: 30 walks

He is another guy that has averaged north of 500 plate appearances the past three seasons. Can we expect another one as he approaches his later thirties? Eventually, the actuary tables will overcome him, but here is betting for one more good season before he turns into a pumpkin.

Wilson Ramos—Free Agent

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .298/21 HR/50 Runs/81 RBI/0 SB

6 Category: 34 walks

Given the uncertainty of where he could land and the fact that he has had a significant knee injury, 400 plate appearances might have been the more accurate adjustment. We can change that depending on where he lands. He will be the primary catcher somewhere, but the longer he waits the less likely 500 plate appearances will be an outcome.

Salvador Perez—Kansas City Royals

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .249/25 HR/54 Runs/72 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 18 walks

There will be no bigger gap than the gap between Perez’s five and six category ranking. If he should find himself enshrined in Cooperstown I don’t know how he will get to the podium. He sure won’t walk there. I have to think the Royals will eventually figure out that he is not quite as valuable as he looks. That will eat into his playing time some.

Robinson Chirinos—Houston Astros

Projection: 400 PA

5 Category: .234/20 HR/53 Runs/57 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 44 walks

This reflects the situation at the moment. The Astros might add another veteran catcher and if that happens then Chirinos drops to either 300 plate appearances or completely off the fantasy map. So, consider accordingly. That being said, he is a lot more productive than a lot of people think.

Mike Zunino—Tampa Bay Rays

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .223/28 HR/52 Runs/69 RBI/0 SB

6 Category: 42 walks

This one was a hard projection to get to. On the one hand, the depth chart in Tampa is not overwhelming. On the other hand, they like to mix and match lineups on a daily basis. When we redo this we might end up taking the 400 plate appearance option. 450 might be more accurate and thus he might drop just a little.

Welington Castillo—Chicago White Sox

Projection: 400 PA

5 Category: .270/16 HR/41 Runs/55 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 26 walks

The PED suspension killed his three-year average, but the Sox felt comfortable enough to deal Omar Narvaez to the Mariners. That leaves Castillo as the primary guy. Still, I don’t feel comfortable giving him 500 plate appearances right after the suspension. He could be a sleeper though.

Evan Gattis—Free Agent

Projection: 300 PA

5 Category: .245/17 HR/36 Runs/49 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 23 walks

Gattis may or may not be a catcher in most fantasy formats. He hasn’t caught a game in over a year and may not ever catch another game in his life. At this point, he looks like a part-time DH/first baseman and thus was given the 300 plate appearance designation. If he isn’t eligible at catcher he probably drops to the waiver wire unless he somehow lands as a full time DH somewhere.

Francisco Cervelli—Pittsburgh Pirates

Projection: 400 PA

5 Category: .258/7 HR/42 Runs/46 RBI/3 SB

6 Category: 52 walks

Cervelli plays up in six category leagues. His only true weakness has been his inability to stay in the lineup. Pittsburgh has him on the chopping block, but I don’t know whether that has any bearing on his fantasy value. He is a borderline fantasy regular. If he somehow remains healthy he should be a fantasy regular in a 12 team league. If not then he shouldn’t be.

Tucker Barnhart—Cincinnati Reds

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .258/9 HR/41 Runs/53 RBI/2 SB

6 Category: 49 walks

Barnhart has emerged as Gold Glove quality catcher. That and 3.50 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. However, Gold Glove performers tend to play and when you play you accrue counting statistics. Nothing he does will blow your skirt up, but at the end of the day he will put up decent numbers.

Omar Narvaez—Seattle Mariners

Projection: 500 PA

5 Category: .274/8 HR/46 Runs/37 RBI/0 SB

6 Category: 62 walks

Someone has to play in Seattle and if you are in a six-category league you could do far worse when looking for a reserve catcher. I wouldn’t start him myself, but like Barnhart, he will put up numbers by the sheer fact that he should be in the lineup on most nights. The Mariners won’t be contenders, but they won’t be terrible either.

Austin Hedges—San Diego Padres

Projection: 400 PA

5 Category: .224/17 HR/35 Runs/49 RBI/4 SB

6 Category: 23 walks

I couldn’t begin to tell you what to expect from Hedges. He seemed to discover something towards the end last season,  but the Padres also acquired Francisco Mejia and gave him a trial late in the season. So, production and playing time are in flux. Hedges is a much better defender, so I’m betting that alone gets him in the lineup more than half the time. From there It is anyone’s best guess.

Brian McCann—Atlanta Braves

Projection: 300 PA

5 Category: .236/13 HR/35 Runs/40 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 31 walks

Let’s assume that 2018 was just a season lost to injury and not the beginning of the end. In that case, we can expect him to share time with Tyler Flowers. Based on past production, he should still be a decent fantasy reserve. He’ll produce enough power numbers to keep you afloat. Of course, he could also be done.

Russell Martin—Toronto Blue Jays

Projection: 300 PA

5 Category: .218/11 HR/36 Runs/33 RBI/1 SB

6 Category: 42 walks

Martin is only viable in six category leagues. Then his walks and OBP keep you from completely going in the gutter. He has hit under .200 two seasons in a row. Maybe it’s bad batted ball luck, but two seasons are awfully hard to explain away. So, if we assume the three-year average then he gives you just enough of everything to be decent. Like with McCann, he isn’t likely to get more than part-time duty.

Fantasy Baseball: Second Basemen 2019

Second base is probably the deepest position in fantasy baseball. This presents a bit of an issue when it comes to ranking guys. Every ranking system has holes. When you use multiple seasons of data it can have a chilling effect on younger players. You can handle that one of two ways. You can either openly acknowledge it and simply rank them where they are at or you can leave them out entirely. We will do the latter in this case because it doesn’t make sense to rank Ozzie Albies out of the top twelve or Gleyber Torres not at all.

So, if you see names that don’t appear in the rankings it is not because we have forgotten. Simply put, it doesn’t make sense to put them in when the methodology is stacked against them. We will include them later in the offseason when we start to look at projections rather than the past.

Total points = TB + Runs + RBI + BB + SB + HBP – SO – CS – GIDP

 Jose Altuve—Houston Astros

Points: 1424 (1st)

PPG: 3.16 (1st)

VORP: 172.3 (1st)

He played much of the second half with a broken bone in his leg and he still has lapped the field over the past three seasons. He was built perfectly for total points as he doesn’t strike out often, but he is improving in terms of patience. The question moving forward is whether he will hit for power like he did in 2016 and 2017.

Daniel Murphy—Free Agent

Points: 1143 (3rd)

PPG: 3.03 (2nd)

VORP: 138.3 (2nd)

Murphy is marginally a second baseman at this point, but he will continue to be eligible at the position. He seems destined to be a DH/utility player at this point and that limits the number of teams he can reasonably sign with. Second base is more loaded in free agency than any other position, so it’s hard to firmly rank anyone that is currently a free agent.

Robinson Cano—New York Mets

Points: 1106 (4th)

PPG: 2.83 (3rd)

VORP: 92.7 (5th)

Obviously, the recent trade will rekindle some interest in Cano as he moves back to the Big Apple. However, the production really shouldn’t change. He moves from one pitcher’s park to another and from one marginally competitive team to another. He did show he can still be productive after returning from his suspension.

Brian Dozier—Free Agent

Points: 1234 (2nd)

PPG: 2.69 (4th)

VORP: 88.4 (9th)

Strikeouts hurt in this case as Dozier had a down season last year at the worst possible time. Second base is bound to be a game of musical chairs and there might be more than one on the outside looking in. It’s hard to feel entirely good about Dozier until we see where he lands.

D.J. LeMahieu—Free Agent

Points: 1101 (5th)

PPG: 2.57 (6th)

VORP: 89.1 (8th)

Welcome to the game of musical chairs. LeMahieu has strong defense on his side, so he could land before some of these other second basemen. Unfortunately, it likely won’t be back in Denver, so it’s hard to trust these offensive numbers.

Ben Zobrist—Chicago Cubs

Points: 962 (7th)

PPG: 2.32 (10th)

VORP: 90.4 (6th)

Zobrist might be my favorite non Astro. He can play almost every position and has had to on Chicago because of the presence of Ian Happ and Javier Baez. He is not literally better than any of the top ten second basemen at this point in his career, but he is so darn valuable with his positional flexibility.

Scooter Gennett—Cincinnati Reds

Points: 942 (8th)

PPG: 2.16 (12th)

VORP: 89.2 (7th)

Two consecutive brilliant seasons have put him here. Do you trust the last two seasons or the rest of his career? The Reds do have a nice offense developing and it should only get better as some of those prospects start developing.

Whit Merrifield—Kansas City Royals

Points: 935 (9th)

PPG: 2.43 (9th)

VORP: 71.6 (10th)

Virtually all of that production came from the past two seasons. He likely is a top five guy in reality, but we try to come up with a system and follow it. He could also be dealt which almost certainly would help some of the counting numbers.

Ian Kinsler—Free Agent

Points: 1063 (6th)

PPG: 2.54 (7th)

VORP: 54.2 (15th)

Kinsler is moving in the other direction and it is the worst possible time to be a free agent when your skills are diminishing. It is unclear as to whether he will be a starting second baseman. He is one of the top 30 in the game, but that doesn’t always matter in situations like this.

Asdrubal Cabrera—Free Agent

Points: 895 (12th)

PPG: 2.12 (15th)

VORP: 109.9 (3rd)

He’s an interesting guy. His defense has been far overrated in his career and the VORP shows he is drastically underrated offensively. Unlike Kinsler, he can play multiple positions, so his chances of landing somewhere are greater. Like Zobrist, he should bring some added value because of his versatility.

Cesar Hernandez—Philadelphia Phillies

Points: 883 (13th)

PPG: 1.99 (19th)

VORP: 100.8 (4th)

Hernandez is a stat head’s dream. He gets on base and makes solid contact but doesn’t enthrall fantasy players because he doesn’t hit home runs or steal bases. With a budding superstar lineup he could end up being a beneficiary.

Jed Lowrie—Free Agent

Points: 878 (14th)

PPG: 2.21 (11th)

VORP: 61.2 (12th)

This feels like a reunion should be in order. Lowrie picked a great season to have his best season, but still may be waiting around for that big pay day. There are just too many other guys out there on the market.

Jonathan Schoop—Free Agent

Points: 929 (10th)

PPG: 2.05 (17th)

VORP: 54.4 (14th)

Talk about your classic buy low candidate. He hits 20+ home runs regularly, but that is really all he is good for. He doesn’t draw walks and he doesn’t add any speed. In the right lineup he could be an under the radar choice late in the draft.

Jason Kipnis—Cleveland Indians

Points: 848 (15th)

PPG: 2.16 (12th)

VORP: 41.9 (21st)

Kipnis is eligible in the outfield in addition to second base. That makes him a decent add late in the draft, but he has had a couple of down seasons. The Indians are also paring down their roster, so this is a diminishing asset on all sides.

Dustin Pedroia—Boston Red Sox

Points: 693 (19th)

PPG: 2.65 (5th)

VORP: 34.5 (24th)

Pedroia missed much of the last two seasons with knee trouble. Hopefully, he should finally be healthy again in 2019 and that’s a scary thought for Red Sox opponents. Just adding one more bat to that lineup is a scary thought.

Starlin Castro—Miami Marlins

Points: 813 (16th)

PPG: 1.95 (20th)

VORP: 57.7 (13th)

Castro has seemingly been around forever and he is a lot younger than you think. Still, his best days are behind him. He might be a nice bench piece at the end of your bench, but that’s about it. When we include the youngsters he probably drops off the list.

Joe Panik—San Francisco Giants

Points: 793 (17th)

PPG: 2.16 (12th)

VORP: 41.7 (22nd)

When healthy, Panik is surprisingly productive. Unfortunately, he hasn’t consistently been healthy. The Giants may be looking to upgrade this spot, so Panik may find himself out of a job. So, you can wait for the waiver wire on him in case he somehow magically keeps his job.

Josh Harrison—Free Agent

Points: 692 (20th)

PPG: 1.95 (20th)

VORP: 49.7 (16th)

Everyone is looking for the Marwin Gonzalez type and he is a free agent. Harrison gives teams a cheaper option. In some ways, he is superior. He offers really good speed and might be a slightly better defender at second base. Start warming up the music for musical chairs.

Fantasy Baseball: First Basemen 2019

Very few full season fantasy players carry a backup catcher. So, last time we covered catchers we covered only twelve given that there are usually twelve players in a standard league. With first basemen you almost always carry at least two first basemen. Often times, they serve as your utility player or a key person off of your bench. Sometimes players have multiple positions of eligibility. That obviously depends on the platform you are using.

For those just joining us, our ranking system is based primarily on a total points universe. That is the method of choice for daily fantasy leagues and an increasing number of full season leagues are moving to that as well. We are going back three seasons in total points and in value over replacement player (VORP). The third category is total points per game. The combination gives us a nice cross-section of what the player has done. Obviously, some will criticize based on the absence of a projection analysis. That can always come later when the dust settles from offseason movement.

Total points= TB + Runs + RBI + BB + SB + HBP – SO – CS – GIDP

Anthony Rizzo—Chicago Cubs

Points: 1437 (1st)

PPG: 3.09 (1st)

VORP: 110.6 (4th)

How in the hell is Rizzo the top guy? Well, the first lesson in fantasy sports is that the most productive players in fantasy terms are not necessarily the best players. VORP reveals that nugget. Still, Rizzo plays on a great team and has been fairly healthy the past several seasons.

Paul Goldschmidt—Arizona Diamondbacks

Points: 1382 (3rd)

PPG: 2.93 (3rd)

VORP: 157.9 (2nd)

A lot is made of who surrounds a player. It usually doesn’t make that much of a difference. Goldschmidt will produce whether he is in Phoenix or somewhere else. Others will value him more if he gets traded. That’s just the nature of the beast.

Joey Votto—Cincinnati Reds

Points: 1135 (7th)

PPG: 3.04 (2nd)

VORP: 157.1 (3rd)

Others will be tempted to add Freeman here because of the recent addition of Josh Donaldson. Remember, others rarely have that much of an effect on a player’s performance. Votto is pound for pound the best first basemen in the business. The problem is that the counting numbers often don’t reflect that.

Freddie Freeman—Atlanta Braves

Points: 1284 (4th)

PPG: 2.94 (4th)

VORP: 176.0 (1st)

Speaking of counting numbers, Freeman is one of those guys everyone thinks should produce more. Eventually, you come to go with what a player actually gives you rather than what you think they should give you. That might be a little more based on an improved roster, but I wouldn’t bank on it.

Edwin Encarnacion—Cleveland Indians

Points: 1264 (6th)

PPG: 2.78 (6th)

VORP: 69.1 (7th)

Yes, he is a cut below in actual quality, but WAR is not a fantasy category. He hits home runs and drives in runs as often if not more often than everyone else. True, the Indians are paring down their roster, but he should produce no matter who is there.

Carlos Santana—Philadelphia Phillies

Points: 1282 (5th)

PPG: 2.71 (9th)

VORP: 63.3 (8th)

The Phillies are looking to dump Santana after another productive season. A funny thing happens when you sign someone to a premium contract. You expect premium performance. Santana produced as he always had in Philadelphia, but that isn’t enough for them. He will produce the same as he always has no matter where he is at.

Jose Abreu—Chicago White Sox

Points: 1135 (7th)

PPG: 2.56 (8th)

VORP: 70.0 (6th)

Yes, he doesn’t draw enough walks. Yes, he is on one of the worst teams in the big leagues. One of those might change this winter. Abreu drives in runs when he is healthy and gets on base often enough to keep people honest. Who knows, the Sox may keep him and they may take a significant step forward.

Eric Hosmer—San Diego Padres

Points: 1094 (8th)

PPG: 2.29 (12th)

VORP: 40.9 (14th) 

Hosmer gets a bad rap because the contract he signed was a colossal mistake the moment the ink dried. He didn’t hold a gun to their head. He seems to vacillate between really good seasons and mediocre ones. He’s due for a good one. He won’t ever overwhelm you, but he plays every day and puts up good numbers.

Brandon Belt—San Francisco Giants

Points: 830 (12th)

PPG: 2.23 (14th)

VORP: 77.9 (6th)

We get to the first significant surprise. There is a sizeable gap between Belt’s fantasy reputation and actual production. He doesn’t hit home runs. Sure, that’s a problem in traditional formats, but all of those doubles play well in total points. The key for Belt is always health, but on any given day he is a good value play.

Ryan Zimmerman—Washington Nationals

Points: 786 (16th)

PPG: 2.28 (13th)

VORP: 53.0 (10th)

A true legend in his spare time. When healthy, Zimmerman is one of the top ten first basemen in the game. We saw what he could do for one tantalizing season in 2017. You can probably wait to take him on draft day until the bitter end. It’s still probably a good value play.

Yuli Gurriel—Houston Astros

Points: 755 (18th)

PPG: 2.43 (9th)

VORP: 35.7 (16th)

In two seasons as a regular he has been surprisingly productive for a guy that doesn’t hit home runs and doesn’t draw walks. He will likely be a utility guy next season, but he likely will still get 400 to 500 at bats. That flexibility makes him play up as he could serve as a valuable fantasy bench piece in full season leagues.

Miguel Cabrera—Detroit Tigers

Points: 788 (15th)

PPG: 2.42 (10th)

VORP: 33.0 (19th)

He was off to a really good start last season before he was lost for the season with more injury trouble. If healthy he is a starting quality fantasy player. Sure, wait as long as you can to take him and hope your fellow players forget about him.

Albert Pujols—Los Angeles Angels

Points: 982 (9th)

PPG: 2.35 (11th)

VORP: -4.7 (26th)

No, I wouldn’t take him either. He says another surgical procedure will turn back the clock and make him productive again. We’ve heard that for the past three offseasons. The VORP is probably a lot closer to the truth on him.

Ian Desmond—Colorado Rockies

Points: 828 (13th)

PPG: 2.01 (17th)

VORP: 34.2 (18th)

Desmond is not a guy I would want to be a primary first baseman in even real baseball terms. When you throw in the fact that he might also be eligible in the outfield and other infield positions then he becomes a valuable commodity.

Josh Bell—Pittsburgh Pirates

Points: 740 (19th)

PPG: 2.10 (16th)

VORP: 44.9 (13th)

Pirates fans and fantasy fans alike keep waiting for Bell to take the next step. It might come this year. It might come next year. It might never come. I don’t place my fanstasy hopes on someone taking the next step. However, a late round flier is not placing your hopes. It is a reasonable gamble that it might happen.

Jose Martinez—St. Louis Cardinals

Points: 535 (22nd)

PPG: 1.98 (18th)

VORP: 57.5 (9th)

Take a look at the VORP. Some AL team is going to be smart and trade peanuts for this guy. He is a DH masquerading as a first baseman. The Cardinals play him as often as they can, but he isn’t an everyday first baseman. If he ever becomes an everyday DH he should shoot up the draft board.

Justin Smoak—Toronto Blue Jays

Points: 801 (14th)

PPG: 1.86 (21st)

VORP: 37.9 (15th)

Smoak has been good for two seasons, but the data here is three seasons worth of data. He really should rate higher than this based solely on the last two seasons. He could be moved if the Blue Jays find a package to their liking. I wouldn’t expect that to impact Smoak’s value much.

Yonder Alonso—Cleveland Indians

Points: 837 (11th)

PPG: 1.89 (20th)

VORP: 25.2 (21st)

Like with Smoak, he has made himself a decent fantasy option with two consecutive productive seasons. That narrowly eclipses two prominent candidates (Max Muncy and Jesus Aguilar) who have one productive season to their name. Bench philosophies vary depending on the player. Some want to roll the dice. Others want solid, productive guys that they can count on. I’m usually part of the latter group.

Fantasy Baseball: Catchers 2019

There are any number of ways to tackle fantasy baseball. There are a number of formats to contend with. It isn’t simple enough to cover the basic numbers anymore. Daily fantasy sports have taken the fantasy world by storm. It is a multi-billion dollar business these days as even the hallowed halls of Congress have had to address its popularity. I happen to think that daily fantasy formats can help you in season long formats as well. The numbers are more comprehensive and so it reveals more of the nature of the player.

The general idea across the board is that players accumulate points based on various events. They can also lose points based on strikeouts, grounding into double plays, and getting caught stealing. Daily leagues accumulate points by the day, so matchups are much more important. Yet, some full season leagues are switching to the same format. So, we will look at total points over the last three seasons, total points per game, and we will also include Baseball Prospectus’ value above replacement player. The combination gives us a decent composite of the player.

Total points = TB + Runs + RBI + SB + BB + HBP – SO – CS – GIDP 

  1. Buster Posey—San Francisco Giants

 Total Points- 954 (1st)

PPG- 2.44 (2nd)

VORP- 110.8 (2nd)

Posey had his 2018 season end early with hip surgery. There are a couple of ways to go here. The eternal optimist will say that he should be healthy when he wasn’t this past season. The pessimist might see this as the beginning of the end. Realistically, it might be his last season behind the dish. There is a reason why there are so few Hall of Fame catchers.

  1. J.T. Realmuto—Miami Marlins

Total Points- 874 (3rd)

PPG- 2.17 (6th)

VORP- 127.1 (1st)

This is a great primer for VORP. What is it and why does it matter? Well, it measures how good a player is once you remove the effects of league and park. Miami is a notorious pitcher’s park. There is a reason why Christian Yelich became so good once he left Miami. The answer is that he really didn’t become good. He was always good. A second place ranking is a bet on Realmuto moving on to greener pastures.

  1. Yadier Molina—St. Louis Cardinals

Total Points- 901 (2nd)

PPG- 2.22 (4th)

VORP- 77.7 (5th)

The actuary table on catchers is pretty stark. When they reach their mid-thirties they are usually done. So, I can forgive anyone for dropping Molina on their catcher list. In a vacuum I’d bet on regression too. The problem is that we have been betting on regression for the last three or four years. At some point, you just accept that he is a freak of nature and go with it.

  1. Gary Sanchez—New York Yankees

Total points- 695 (6th)

PPG- 2.63 (1st)

VORP- 74.1 (6th)

This was a lost year for Sanchez, but it says something that he can miss nearly half the season with injuries, play horribly for most of the time he was healthy, and still end up here in the rankings. He would probably DH for most teams, but the Yankees are loaded there. They might be smart to limit him to 100 to 110 games even with his awesome offensive potential.

  1. Yasmani Grandal—Free Agent

Total Points- 729 (5th)

PPG- 1.85 (11th)

VORP- 95.0 (3rd)

We get to an interesting debate in the baseball community: how detrimental is the strikeout? For the stat geeks it is nearly non-existent. For the traditional fan, they are like fingernails on a chalkboard. The strikeout is the biggest difference between Grandal being an elite catcher and being a pretty good catcher. Choose accordingly.

  1. Wilson Ramos—Free Agent

Total points- 659 (8th)

PPG- 2.23 (3rd)

VORP- 71.5 (7th)

Again, what you make of Ramos depends largely on where you stand on the whole traditional versus new-age debate. Sabermetrics are not that kind, but he seems to accumulate numbers in spite of it all. General managers might not pay as much given the shift to data driven decision making, but fantasy owners can’t ignore the results.

  1. Willson Contreras—Chicago Cubs

Total points- 620 (10th)

PPG- 1.87 (10th)

VORP- 82.7 (4th)

Again, we see a case where the hidden numbers say one thing and the conventional numbers say something else. As you can tell, I try to split the difference. I do that because I don’t know what format you are playing in. Five category leagues may not like him as much, but more and more leagues are including either a sixth category or moving to total points.

  1. Kurt Suzuki—Washington Nationals

Total Points- 645 (9th)

PPG- 2.21 (5th)

VORP- 59.8 (10th)

I’ve had an interesting debate with a Nationals’ fan about Suzuki. He seems to believe that the Nats will add another front-line catcher. Suzuki is just a backup he says. Well, he’s pretty damn productive for a backup. So, his situation bears watching. I have no doubt that some in Washington would like another good catcher. It might be a good idea as Suzuki succeeded with Tyler Flowers also in tow.

  1. Salvador Perez—Kansas City Royals

Total points- 778 (4th)

PPG- 1.96 (8th)

VORP- 41.7 (15th)

Catcher is at the heart of a number of debates on the fantasy front. Should you draft someone that plays nearly every day and puts up decent power numbers or would you rather have quality numbers in fewer games? Perez and Suzuki are interesting foils in this regard. I’d rather have quality than quantity, but some people feel differently. Certainly, Perez’s lack of patience doesn’t hurt him in five category leagues.

  1. Evan Gattis—Free Agent

Total points- 694 (7th)

PPG- 2.04 (7th)

VORP- 40.6 (16th)

Gattis is nominally a catcher. Some formats will not recognize him as such after not catching last year. He is either a mediocre bat off the bench or a dangerous offensive weapon behind the plate. He could stick somewhere as a utility guy that catches some, DHs some, and plays some first. He could slip into the waiver wire depending on who signs him and what they plan to do with him.

  1. Francisco Cervelli—Pittsburgh Pirates

Total points- 511 (15th)

PPG- 1.79 (11th)

VORP- 62.0 (9th)

Cervelli is the perfect marriage of going with someone that is destined to get opportunities and someone that won’t kill your percentage statistics at the same time. He sacrifices power, but you can get that at other positions. Everyone has to punt a position or two on draft day and he could be a nice option if you choose to punt catcher.

  1. Robinson Chirinos—Free Agent

Total points- 444 (16th)

PPG- 1.72 (12th)

VORP- 51.9 (11th)

Again, his spot depends on his situation. He reminds you of the kind of guy that puts up numbers on bad teams. You see it in the NBA all the time. You get the guy that average 20 a game on a last place team. Put him on a playoff team and he isn’t even a starter. A return to Texas might be good for him and fantasy owners, but maybe not so good for Texas.

Reputation Index: Catchers on the Outside Looking In

Occasionally, news interrupts the process and we have to stop and acknowledge it. Joe Mauer decided to call it quits after a brilliant 15 year career with the Minnesota Twins. He certainly could have caught on somewhere as a part-time DH and first baseman. If he cast his net out wide enough he could have even served as a regular player for another season or two. Yet, those seasons would have been marginal in nature in terms of replacement value. You have to admire someone that sees the writing on the wall.

Brian McCann is in a similar situation. He could continue as a part-time catcher for another season or two if he wants. He could return to Atlanta and share time with Tyler Flowers or catch on somewhere else and be a veteran caddie for a younger catcher. As of this writing, he has not made any announcements on his future. It is conceivable that he could retire as well. Since this is the case, it is high time we go back to the catchers outside of the Hall of Fame and look at their record with the reputation index.

In the interest of time, we will combine the modern catchers with those on the outside looking in. We are going to include all of the catchers we profiled in earlier posts and at least one more to pique everyone’s interest. Remember, we are only comparing catchers with catchers. Most of them tend to be negative in terms of the reputation index, but that might not always be the case.

MVP Points

  Top 25 Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points
Joe Mauer 1 2 1 1 22
Joe Torre 5 0 1 1 20
Thurman Munson 4 2 0 1 20
Yadier Molina 3 0 2 0 13
Ted Simmons 4 3 0 0 13
Bill Freehan 1 1 2 0 9
Jorge Posada 0 1 1 0 8
Russell Martin 3 0 0 0 3
Brian McCann 2 0 0 0 2
Gene Tenace 2 0 0 0 2

I can’t stress this often enough. MVP points are not about how good a player really is. They are about how good the writers think a player is. That is largely about offensive numbers. Out of the group, it is possible that Molina may add a top 25 finish this season. He certainly put up some of the best offensive numbers of his career. However, the difference between how good these guys are and what people thought they were usually comes at the defensive end. While Molina won another Gold Glove (his ninth), the real numbers will likely reveal something different.

As for Mauer, what we can say is that MVP points are an excellent predictor of what the BBWAA is likely to do. After all, the same group votes for the Hall of Fame. We say Joe Torre is out of the Hall of Fame, but he does have a plaque there as a manager. So, the Veterans Committee has no reason to address his candidacy. We could call him there and leave it at that.

That leaves the tragic case of Thurman Munson. Unfortunately, you can never assume facts not in evidence. It is highly possible that he might have played another several productive seasons had he not perished in that plane crash. We will never know. The BBWAA thought highly of him, so if he had those seasons to his credit he would have likely been in as well. The rest clearly were lagging behind. Was that deserved?

BWAR Top Tens

  Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points Index
Joe Mauer 3 2 0 19 0.86
Ted Simmons 5 0 0 15 1.15
Bill Freehan 2 1 0 11 1.22
Joe Torre 3 0 0 9 0.45
Gene Tenace 3 0 0 9 4.50
Yadier Molina 1 1 0 8 0.62
Thurman Munson 1 1 0 8 0.40
Russell Martin 2 0 0 6 2.00
Jorge Posada 0 1 0 5 0.63
Brian McCann 1 0 0 3 1.50

Calling Gene Tenace the most underrated catcher of all-time is not that controversial. Bill James was making that point all the way back in the 1970s. In his case, it was more about them underestimating the value of walks. The same could be said for Russell Martin. The rest of the bunch fall well within the norm of what you would expect when you are looking at a group of catchers.

There are two big take aways when you look at this second table. First, I’m not quite certain how long Mauer will have to wait to get into the Hall of Fame, but barring anything catastrophic he will get in someday. Secondly, this test confirms our previous contention that Ted Simmons should have gotten in as well.

Reputation Index: First Basemen

Reputation index is one of our newer tests and as such it seems like a good idea to go back and look at each position with the new test. Like all of the other tests, they only make sense when we compare players from the same position. Also, no test is the deciding point between the Hall of Fame and not. The general idea is to get a consensus among most of the tests before we say yay or nay.

First basemen should finish better in the MVP voting because the award has typically been dominated by hitters. First basemen tend to put up better offensive numbers in general and better power numbers specifically. So, the reputation index is taken by comparing the MVP points and the points garnered from BWAR’s top ten position player numbers from season to season.

As we said last time, this is not perfect. Position player top tens take the top ten bWAR from all position players in the big leagues that season. So, we are including both leagues, but we are not including any pitchers. Still, since we are applying the same standard to all players and positions we will simply take the position top ten score and divide it by the MVP points. The higher the score the more adversely affected the player was by their reputation. The lower the score, the more they benefitted from their reputation. Naturally, a simple breakdown of the rankings in both categories also tell us the same thing.

MVP Points 

  Top 25 Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points
Lou Gehrig 2 1 6 2 55
Frank Thomas 2 3 4 2 51
Jimmie Foxx 4 2 1 3 45
Harmon Killebrew 4 1 5 1 42
Hank Greenberg 2 2 2 2 38
Eddie Murray 1 2 6 0 37
Jeff Bagwell 3 2 2 1 29
Willie McCovey 5 2 1 1 26
Tony Perez 3 2 2 0 24
George Sisler 0 0 0 1 10

Normally, we wouldn’t include someone like Sisler in the comparison. The Chalmer’s Award was not an MVP award in the traditional sense. Players could only receive it once and they didn’t have the same kind of voting procedure as the modern award. So, he might have been the best player more than once and we have no way of knowing how often he would have finished in the top ten or top 25.

Otherwise, these numbers reveal the kind of problems that relying on MVP points can cause. Is Frank Thomas really the second best first baseman of all-time? Is Eddie Murray really better than Jeff Bagwell? You are getting the idea. The idea is that looking at MVP voting tells us what the BBWAA thought of the player at the time. As we know, our collective understanding of player performance has become more sophisticated over the years. So, let’s take a look at the BWAR top tens and see where the players finished according to their BWAR. The index column will be the top ten scores divided by their MVP points.

BWAR Top tens  

  Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points Index
Lou Gehrig 0 9 3 75 1.36
Jimmie Foxx 2 6 3 66 1.47
George Sisler 0 4 2 40 4.00
Jeff Bagwell 2 2 2 36 1.24
Hank Greenberg 1 6 0 33 0.87
Willie McCovey 3 2 1 29 1.12
Frank Thomas 2 4 0 26 0.51
Harmon Killebrew 4 2 0 22 0.52
Eddie Murray 3 1 0 14 0.38
Tony Perez 3 1 0 14 0.58

The first thing we notice is that these ten first basemen won 13 MVP awards between them. They deserved 11 awards, so the voting is really not that far off collectively. We do notice a lot of shifting though. Universally, the difference is fielding. With the exception of Gehrig, all of the players in the top five or even six were known as solid to very good defenders. The bottom four were not.

The first base chapter saw me doubt to qualifications of George Sisler and Tony Perez. This test would seem to vindicate Sisler. It does not vindicate Perez. In terms of reputation index, he is not the most overrated player of the bunch (congratulations Eddie Murray) but he is among them. Again, this doesn’t prove anything. It is simply one test among many.

Unfortunately, baseball-reference did not rank players through the top 25 or in the top ten of their league. Some of these players might have garnered numerous more votes that way. We also have to remember that average players have value. If Eddie Murray turned in four such good seasons as we see above that is one thing. If we add ten above average seasons to that tally then we have something completely different than if we added only say five or six such seasons.

So, we have to look at the rest of their careers before we have a context for Murray and Perez. Getting that context allows us to differentiate between which one really deserves to be in Cooperstown and which one doesn’t. As we know, Murray ended up with 500 home runs and more than 3000 hits. If we take the number of wins and win shares we get a similar breakdown. So, this begs the question of what real value a test like this might have.

Well, when a player like Sisler comes up short we immediately start asking some very difficult questions. The first question is why they came up short. We answered that one last time. The second is whether their peak value is enough to overcome the lack of career value. The MVP points and bWAR top tens can help answer that question. Finishing third in bWAR top ten points is quite a feat for any player and keeping someone like that out of the Hall of Fame is very difficult.

Reputation Index: Catchers

This is the point in the preparation for a book where we go back and do some lengthy edits. Every once in a while, when we go through the various tests we end up stumbling on a new one. I certainly wish I had thought of it before when I wrote the first book. We have been dabbling in MVP points for several posts and this is nothing new. Comparing those results with the top ten finishes in position player bWAR is relatively new. When we combine those two we get something we could call the “reputation index”.

In short, the MVP vote is not an accurate chronicling of how good the player was. It’s a chronicling of what the writers thought of the player at the time. Like with the index itself, it only makes sense when we compare these position by position. So, we are going back to the beginning (catchers in this case) and applying the test position by position. We would go into the chapters themselves and make the change. Here, we get to simply take a detour out of left field.

It shouldn’t be any surprise that catchers got more love in the MVP vote than they deserved. Ten catchers were voted in by the BBWAA. They shared 12 MVP awards in their respective careers. According to bWAR, they actually deserved one. So, it isn’t that they got more support than they deserved, but by how much. Some players got much more than they deserved, but a few were actually underrated. Like any other test, it isn’t the end all be all, but it is an interesting piece of the puzzle.

MVP Points

  Top 25 Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points
Yogi Berra 7 0 4 3 57
Johnny Bench 5 1 2 2 38
Roy Campanella 3 1 0 3 36
Mickey Cochrane 2 3 1 2 33
Mike Piazza 2 3 4 0 31
Gabby Hartnett 6 2 1 1 27
Bill Dickey 4 2 3 0 25
Ivan Rodriguez 2 3 0 1 21
Gary Carter 3 2 2 0 19
Carlton Fisk 3 2 2 0 19

So, ask yourself this question: how likely is it that Yogi Berra was really among the top 25 players in the league 14 times? The problem with the reputation index is two-fold. First, baseball-reference only tracked the number of times a player was in the top ten in bWAR. That means we don’t know how many times each player finished between 11 and 25 in the league. Secondly, it was a top ten in the big leagues and not the individual league. We could conceivably double the second points total and get an approximate number.

Those are not the only issues. We are not including starting pitchers when there is always at least a couple included in the MVP vote. What we are looking for is a direct comparison of the way a position is perceived with the way these players actually finished. Berra played for the most successful team in professional sports history. They won five consecutive World Series titles and were practically a fixture in the World Series from the late 1940s through the early 1960s. It’s no wonder that all of the Yankee regulars got plenty of love in the MVP vote.

All of the top five players in the table above have similar stories to tell. Naturally, any of our statistical systems (fWAR and win shares included) would give those players a slight advantage. Teams that win get more wins when it comes time to divvy up the results. FWAR and BWAR are more virtual than the literal win shares formula, but even then we would expect those top five to have an inherent advantage. However, even with the inherent advantage we will find some different results.

BWAR Top Tens 

  Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points
Gary Carter 1 7 1 48
Yogi Berra 4 3 0 27
Mickey Cochrane 6 1 0 23
Johnny Bench 2 3 0 21
Mike Piazza 0 3 0 15
Carlton Fisk 0 3 0 15
Gabby Hartnett 5 0 0 15
Ivan Rodriguez 3 1 0 14
Roy Campanella 1 2 0 13
Bill Dickey 4 0 0 12

So, why Gary Carter? Simply put, getting in the top ten in bWAR is a lot about being good offensively and defensively. Carter was a legitimate Gold Glove performer during his prime. Two things happened to Carter in terms of reputation. First, the Gold Glove voters did not recognize him often enough for his fielding when he played. Secondly, he hung on way too long after he was no longer effective as a player.

The rest of the top five rounded predictably according to the actual MVP voting. Berra was consistently good and Cochrane was better in this test than in the index because he was really good for about a decade. The rest of the list is grouped together in a tight grouping. Catchers don’t often finish in the top ten since they normally don’t play much more than 120 games a season.

Does this mean that Carter really was the best catcher of all-time? That’s hard to say. I’ve heard from proponents for Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, and Yogi Berra. Each have points in their favor. If someone wanted to argue for Carter they certainly have some evidence now. Unfortunately, reputation index doesn’t tell you anything about longevity or consistency. It just tells you that Carter was the most unappreciated catcher of all-time.

Left Fielders on the Outside Looking In

The index was never designed to be a conversation stopper. Baseball in general and the Hall of Fame specifically is better when there is a conversation. The index pinpoints value, but how one accrues that value matters. Would you rather have a player who was very good for ten to twelve seasons or would you rather have someone that was merely good for fifteen seasons? That obviously depends on the eye of the beholder.

Furthermore, the why and what fors matter too. The index doesn’t tell those stories. So, the index is merely a beginning and not the end. There were five primary left fielders before the modern era that deserve some level of recognition and mention. How they arrived at their value might be as important as the value itself. Let’s begin with career value.

Career Value 

  BWAR FWAR WS/5 Total
Sherry Magee 59.3 63.4 70.8 193.5
Bob Johnson 57.3 57.0 57.4 171.3
Jose Cruz 54.4 50.8 62.6 167.8
Minnie Minoso 50.5 50.8 56.6 157.9
Bobby Veach 47.8 43.7 52.0 144.5

It is theoretically possible to have a higher peak value than a career value, but the practical odds are nearly zero. The index doesn’t automatically qualify anyone, but it can serve to disqualify someone. Veach is destined to finish below 300 and probably well below 300 in total index. The rest are still in the conversation. We will continue to track Veach for the heck of it, but he will not be seriously considered from here on out.

The others have interesting individual cases for enshrinement that go beyond the numbers. Some of those are very compelling. Magee was one of the best hitters from the early part of the 20thcentury. His career slipped through the cracks because the BBWAA started to consider players well after his retirement. His resume just didn’t stack up with the all-time greats.

Indian Bob Johnson got a very late call up, so his shortened career has to be seen in a different context. The question is two-fold. First, were the seasons he had good enough to overcome the shortened career? Secondly, could it be credibly argued that he should have been called up earlier and would have been in a different era? The index can help us with the first question. History will have to help us with the second question.

Finally, we get Minnie Minoso. He was the first significant foreign born player to break through in the big leagues. The big leagues are inundated with players from the Caribbean, Mexico, Central America, and South America now. He could be considered as a pioneer beyond the numbers. That being said, we should finish our cursory look at these players and their peak value numbers.

Peak Value

  BWAR FWAR WS/5 Total Index
Minnie Minoso 50.5 51.1 51.3 152.9 310.8
Sherry Magee 46.8 50.1 52.6 149.5 343.0
Jose Cruz 44.8 44.9 46.0 135.7 303.5
Bob Johnson 44.8 45.4 43.4 133.6 305.3
Bobby Veach 44.5 41.0 47.4 132.9 277.4

The idea behind the index is to find separation. We see two sides of separation here. We see separation between Magee and the others and we see separation between the others and Veach. We can safely eliminate Veach from consideration, but the others find themselves squarely in the borderline zone. We have identified enhancements to the candidacies of Minoso and Johnson.

Cruz may not have a considerable bonus to add to his candidacy, but seeing his name here is surely a surprise. He didn’t hit for extremely high average. He wasn’t a noted power hitter. He didn’t steal a bunch of bases. He didn’t win a bunch of Gold Gloves. What he did was a little of everything and did in a very hostile environment for hitters. Add that all up and you get a much better player than the eyeball test might.

The first significant test we can throw in after the index is the MVP points for each candidate. Unfortunately, we will need to take Sherry Magee and Bobby Veach out because they played at a time when MVP awards were not consistently handed out. Even when they were, the voting was much different, so it would be like comparing applies to cucumbers. So, we will include the other three just as a point of reference. Each top 25 finish is awarded one point, every top ten finish three points, top five finishes are awarded five points, and MVP awards are given ten points.

  Top 25 Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points
Minnie Minoso 2 1 4 0 25
Bob Johnson 3 2 1 0 14
Jose Cruz 2 2 1 0 13

This doesn’t prove that Minoso was the best of the three. It simply proves he was the most highly regarded of the three. If we include the others in here we will see something completely different when we look at the way they finished in single season WAR. Baseball-reference tracks that, so let’s take a look at how each fares in individual season bWAR.

  Top 10 Top 5 1st Points
Sherry Magee 6 1 1 33
Minnie Minoso 5 0 1 25
Bobby Veach 3 3 0 24
Bob Johnson 2 2 0 16
Jose Cruz 3 0 0 9

These numbers are much more meaningful in terms of what the players actually did. The MVP points tell us how they were viewed at the time. We have been ignoring Veach for the most part but he did fare well here. Johnson and Cruz’s teams typically did not win much. WAR is parceled out based on expected runs scored and runs allowed, but that is still dependent on team success. This probably affected Johnson a lot more than Cruz. The Athletics were terrible throughout his tenure, so he would not have been given a lot of extra credit.

No single test gives us a definitive answer, but each one reveals a small piece of the puzzle. Magee and Minoso definitely come out looking better given the fact that they were the best player in baseball in at least one season. We can’t give them the go ahead just yet, but they are both a step closer. Now, let’s look at the offensive numbers.

Offensive Numbers 

  OPS+ Rbaser OW% wRC+ wOBA
Bob Johnson 139 -1 .682 133 .411
Sherry Magee 137 22 .700 134 .381
Minnie Minoso 130 13 .652 133 .382
Bobby Veach 127 -2 .653 124 .383
Jose Cruz 120 2 .610 119 .344

Whether Johnson or Magee is the best hitter of the bunch depends largely on which number you pay the most attention to. Johnson played in the greatest hitter era the game has ever known, so it makes perfect sense that some of his numbers would be superior. I tend to like offensive winning percentage and in that case he is not quite as good as Magee, but both players would be on teams that won more than 110 games.

Everyone acquits themselves well except for Jose Cruz. Granted, he was still a much better offensive player than most people gave him credit for. These numbers don’t eliminate him from Hall of Fame consideration, but they do put him behind the eight ball. He will need to finish strongly in the defensive categories. Either way, it would appear that Johnson, Magee, and Minoso have much stronger cases than they had before.

Fielding Numbers 

Jose Cruz 77 0.2 67 48.8 0
Minnie Minoso 30 -5.3 31 39.6 2
Bobby Veach 30 -6.3 30 47.0 3
Sherry Magee 25 -8.4 37 44.4 2
Bob Johnson 18 -5.8 22 35.4 0

We mentioned this last time, but it bears repeating. Gold gloves (and win share gold gloves) were awarded to the top three outfielders regardless of position. So, that usually meant centerfielders. Maybe these guys would have won more Gold Gloves if they had been parceled out by position. Either way, all of them were positive impact fielders and Cruz was the best of the bunch. It is enough to get him in the Hall of Fame? That might be a tall order.

What about Pete Rose?

One cannot simply start talking about Pete Rose and the Hall of Fame. The debate has layers, sections, and detours that are destined the derail your conversation if you aren’t careful. The conversation has to be divided into three separate discussions that all have equal weight and intrigue. I know it can be frustrating not to jump into the meat of the discussion, but if we don’t organize our thoughts we won’t get anywhere.

Where does he stand in the history of the game?

Even this question is loaded. There is nothing that is simple and that includes statistics. Opinions on Rose range anywhere from him being one of the greatest players in the history of the game to being one of the more overrated players in the history of the game. A chronicling of him being one of the top ten players is based on very simplistic methodology. It starts and usually stops with 4256.

Yet, the naysayers might also might be overlooking some things. Still, we start with the obvious question: what in the hell is he doing in a discussion about left fielders? Well, the question of what position to consider someone at can be tricky too. Usually we go with the position played more often, but that is not universal. Sometimes we have to consider where the player was better defensively and other times we need to consider the value they brought to the table at that position. We will analyze all three methods and show why he lands in left field.

  Games TZ Runs BWAR
First Base 939 -44 1.9
Second Base 628 -21 13.3
Third Base 634 -35 17.4
Left Field 673 51 25.1
Right Field 590 1 21.0

This is the first and best example of not always getting the facts right. The anti-Rose crowd point to his shoddy defensive numbers and certainly that might be true overall, but the numbers here show he was a pretty gifted left fielder and at least mediocre in right field. The bWAR numbers were taken in seasons where he spent the majority of his time at that position. He also played some games in centerfield, but he never spent the majority of any season at that position.

Clearly, he played more games at first base than any individual position and more games in the infield than in the outfield. He came up as a second baseman, so it would certainly be defensible to categorize him as an infielder, but he was clearly at his best in the outfield both defensively and overall as a player. The fact that he played more games in left, played the position very well, and enjoyed his most success as a player there makes the decision pretty easy.

Now that we have that problem solved it is time we moved on to the index. We always start with the career value numbers. We have to keep the 12 players from the BBWAA in mind. Eight easily belonged while four were borderline. Let’s see where Rose ranks individually.

Career Value

  bWAR fWAR WS/5 Total
Pete Rose 79.7 80.1 109.4 279.2

Clearly, Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame. Furthermore, the career numbers here put him well within the top five players at the position. If we exclude Barry Bonds for a moment we find that Rose finishes fifth at the position and pretty close to Carl Yastrzemski. At this point, there is little reason to rank one before the other. We often get ourselves in trouble when we attempt to sort players like this. Suffice it to say, they are similar in terms of value.

It is worth noting that the win share numbers were far different than the WAR numbers. This is where we should remind everyone that win shares are based on actual wins and not expected wins. Usually those aren’t different but when a player plays for a historically great team we find that those teams consistently outperform their expected records. From here we get into the minutia of debating whether that is a factor of luck or clutch performance. If it is clutch performance then we have to parcel out that added value proportionally. Nine times out of ten that evens out over the course of a career. In the case of the Big Red Machine we have to assume that Rose played a part in them overachieving their expected record on a consistent basis.

This is where the rubber meets the road. We can say that Rose benefitted from having great teammates and so his numbers (conventional and sabermetric) were better as a result. We can also claim that his teammates were better because of him. With a player like Rose, each explanation is equally plausible. Suffice it to say, it is situations like these that make using three different sources necessary. We can’t discount win shares, but we can’t completely rely on it either.

Peak Value 

  bWAR fWAR WS/5 Total Index
Pete Rose 60.2 55.7 60.8 176.7 455.9

Rose has the kind of peak value figures you would expect from someone that played for 25 years. This is particularly true when you consider win shares. The major difference is that win shares are not negative. If someone is always putting up positive value then we can expect bigger gaps between career and peak value. So, we see a starker difference between Rose and the other top five left fielders.

In terms of peak value he ranks closest to Joe Medwick. I suspect this reflects the anti-Rose crowd’s collective opinion of him. That certainly makes sense but it also ignores the career value component. Both reflect the player overall, so it is impossible to consider one without the other. That puts the truth somewhere in between.

Opinions of Rose get complicated when we parcel out hitting and fielding. His primary value point is as a compiler. We’ve already seen some of the fielding numbers, so we will avoid the usual chart at this point. We saw this phenomenon with a few players in history. The most notable was Craig Biggio. When players play so many positions you have to look at them differently.

Did Rose play different positions because he was a bad player or because he was versatile enough to move? The Reds famously moved Rose to third base in 1975 to make room for George Foster. As we saw with his fielding numbers, he was a pretty good defensive outfielder. So, he brought some added value because of his versatility. How that gets baked into the Rose value cake is anyone’s best guess. I’m not smart enough to make specific allowances for that, but we also can’t take his overall defensive numbers at face value.

Offensive Numbers 

  OPS+ Rbaser OW% wRC+ wOBA
Pete Rose 118 12 .644 121 .354

Like with the fielding, the offensive numbers are somewhat misleading. Rose was remarkably unproductive in his last several seasons. When you add in the fact that he was playing below average first base it was glaring. It’s hard to distill that out of the overall memory. We usually remember the last thing we saw and for many that was an aging singles hitter that refused to admit he was past his prime. 1981 was the last season he had an OPS+ above 100. He retired following 1986. That’s five years of average to below average performance. Lop off those five seasons and I imagine you see something completely different above. We are still talking 18 seasons, so it’s not like longevity was an issue. Usually, my work would be done here, but as we know, Rose comes with other baggage.

How does he compare with other historical bad actors?

The difficulty with Rose is that you have to consider the whole package. That includes an ego that really has never allowed him to show remorse for his bad acts. Instead, he tries to compare himself with steroid and other drug users. Those players weren’t banned and so why was he? This argument demonstrates that Rose has never fully acknowledged what he has done and how it stacks up against other “crimes against baseball”.

Of course, the remorse goes directly to our third question, so we will leave it aside for now. If we rephrased the question above we would simply ask whether he should be banned from baseball for life. I generally don’t like the if…then arguments people are destined to make. In politics we usually call this “whataboutism.” It Is a tactic used to deflect away from the conversation. Is gambline really worse than drinking, using elicit drugs, steroids, or domestic abuse? Moreover, is it worse than just being an asshole? In the generic sense it is hard to make that argument, but we can’t argue this in the generic case. This is about baseball and what it means for baseball.

Even if we ignore the legacy of the 1919 Black Sox scandal and other cheating scandals from the early years of the sport we have to consider the nature of sport itself. Sports continues to be huge entertainment because it is the one form of entertainment where no one knows the end result beforehand. It’s what separates it from professional wrestling or your standard situational comedy. It’s unscripted. A team could win 130 games in the regular season and still lose in the playoffs. That’s what makes it exciting.

When someone gambles on the sport they are putting their fingers on the scale. How much weight they apply depends on whether they bet on their own contests and whether they bet on their own team to win or lose. By all accounts, Rose did bet on the Reds as a player and manager but there is no evidence to say he bet against them. Furthermore, it would not fit his personality to bet against his team.

Still, let’s say he has $1000 on the team to win. Let’s say he has a one run lead in the ninth and his closer has pitched three days in a row. The usual course would be to sit the closer to preserve him for the rest of the week, month, and season. Would having juice affect that decision? That all depends on the amount of the bet in comparison with his finances. Either way, it is hard to deny that any decision he might make is completely pure. That affects the integrity of the game and without that you don’t have a game.

Now, does steroid use affect the integrity of the game? I suppose that argument could be made. Yet, someone that uses PEDs is doing so ostensibly to win. Everyone doing their all falls under the integrity of the game. So, I don’t follow that argument in the same way.

Does he deserve a chance at getting into the Hall of Fame?

Bart Giamatti pulled a fast one on Rose. He enticed him into agreeing a lifetime ban with the expectation that he would still get into the Hall of Fame. Then, they made being on baseball’s banned list verboten in Cooperstown. It was a fancy trick and as much as I might dislike Rose, that was not baseball’s finest hour. We could debate whether Rose deserves to be a part of the game, but that is a separate discussion.

I had to phrase the question as I did above because the question of whether he belongs in is a separate question. As mentioned before, Rose has been reluctant to issue a full mea culpa for his actions. It was only recently (the last decade) that he fully admitted to gambling on baseball in general and gambling on the Reds specifically. He still hasn’t fully come clean as to whether he always bet for his team.

This is hard stuff. I generally fall into the camp that he should be on the ballot and the BBWAA should decide his fate. Then at least every member would get to wrestle with their conscience individually. If someone wants to categorize him in the same way as a Darryl Strawberry or Dwight Gooden that is their right. If someone wants to put him in the same category as Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds that is their right. If they want to consider him another Orlando Cepeda that is also their right.

I’m not sure it is fair to consider him among the top ten players of all-time but he is well within the range of Hall of Fame performance based just on the numbers. I’m not sure the baseball’s banned list and the Hall of Fame registry were ever supposed to be conflated. Is Joe Jackson a Hall of Famer? Maybe if you consider the numbers on their own merits. I don’t know if I would vote for Rose or not, but I think he certainly deserves a chance.

Borderline Hall of Fame Left Fielders

When we start looking at borderline Hall of Fame candidates we start looking at borderline players in the Hall of Fame we start looking at all kinds of different tests we can apply to create separation. I would not want the index to be the only determining factor as to whether someone should be in or not. It wasn’t meant to do that. It was meant to define who should be a part of that category.

We’ve introduced MVP points in the past and we will use that test again, but we will also look at some other tests. The first such test is one Bill James called the “black ink test”. It simply calculates the number of times a player led the league in a particular category. Different weights (or points) are awarded to leading the league in a major statistical category (average, home runs, runs, and RBI) and other minor categories (games played, walks, OBP, SLG). The second new test is simply an accounting of what they did during postseason play. Of course, that’s not a perfect test either. Ralph Kiner did not play in the postseason. That’s hardly his fault. However, we can begin to see some separation between players as to who shone during their moment and who did not. Finally, we have bases per out. We’ve seen it before, but we will see it again here just as a way to further categorize these players.

All four of these players come up short when the index is concerned. It is important that we look at all of the relevant data to determine if there was good enough reason to put them in the Hall of Fame. Sometimes there are extenuating circumstances and sometimes we should overlook certain statistical shortcomings. In other instances, we see examples of certain prejudices that get confirmed when the Hall of Fame vote comes out. Let’s begin with the index and move on from there.

Career Value 

  BWAR FWAR WS/5 Total
Joe Medwick 55.6 54.6 62.4 172.6
Lou Brock 45.3 43.2 69.6 158.1
Jim Rice 47.7 50.8 56.4 154.9
Ralph Kiner 45.4 47.6 48.4 145.4

These numbers by themselves don’t mean much, but we do notice that they fall a little short of the players we profiled in the previous two articles. This is where one of our secondary tests should be brought in to take a look. Since bases per out belongs with the offensive data we will simply add it in there. This leaves us either the playoff performance data, black ink test, or MVP points.

We will make this a little more compelling and compare these four players with the other eight that are already in the Hall of Fame. Obviously, any test is only valuable when we have a frame of reference to compare it with. Since we acknowledge that the other eight left fielders belong in the Hall of Fame we should see these four approach those numbers if they also belong in the Hall of Fame.

  Black Ink
Ted Williams 122
Stan Musial 116
Rickey Henderson 50
Carl Yastrzemski 55
Al Simmons 23
Tim Raines 20
Billy Williams 18
Willie Stargell 17
Ralph Kiner 52
Joe Medwick 41
Jim Rice 33
Lou Brock 26

The average Hall of Famer has a 27 for the black ink test, but that’s a bit of a misnomer since you have to lead the league to get black ink. Left fielders are more likely to lead the league than shortstops. So, we compare these players with their own position group. Tests like these can either serve to eliminate players or qualify them. Brock nearly meets the Hall of Fame average and he is the worst of the four players profiled here. So, we can’t really eliminate him from consideration based on these numbers.

What we can do is look at Kiner and Medwick in a whole different light. Kiner is fifth amongst Hall of Fame left fielders in black ink. Obviously that is a major point in his favor. Medwick stands sixth with 41 and he was the last player in the National League to win a triple crown. Rice and Brock are more ordinary.

Similar to the black ink test, the postseason numbers test can serve to either eliminate a player from consideration or give them an extra boost. So far, no one has been eliminated, but we see that Medwick and Kiner have a boost. Let’s see how these players fared when we look at the postseason numbers.

Lou Brock 92 1.077 16 13 14
Jim Rice 80 .749 14 7 0
Joe Medwick 48 .811 5 5 0

As mentioned earlier, not one of Kiner’s teams got anywhere near the playoffs. As Branch Rickey famously told Kiner, “I could finish last with or without you.” His lack of record in the postseason neither helps him nor hurts him. This leaves the other three guys. Brock clearly comes up huge in the postseason as he put up much better numbers than he did during the regular season.

Rice for his part was unlucky enough to be hurt in 1975 when the Sox made their run. It was such a close series he might have been the difference against the Reds. His lone appearances came in his last good season in 1986 and in 1988 when he was suddenly over the hill. Medwick played in only one series and was decent enough, but was not memorable either way.

If we take both of these tests in concert we see that Brock comes out well ahead in playoff performance, but last in black ink. Rice is decent in black ink and lackluster in playoff performance. Medwick is good in both black ink and playoff performance. Kiner is brilliant in black ink and nonexistent in playoff performance.

Peak Value

  BWAR FWAR WS/5 Total Index
Ralph Kiner 49.4 47.6 48.4 145.4 290.8
Joe Medwick 50.1 44.9 48.6 143.6 298.6
Jim Rice 42.3 45.0 46.2 133.5 288.4
Lou Brock 33.4 36.1 50.0 119.5 277.6

These results tell us two things. First, none of these players meet the traditional standards we have seen from the index. Secondly, they are fairly close to each other in their finishing results. So, the deciding factor over which ones were warranted and which ones were mistakes comes down to how they finish in all of these tests in addition to their index scores.

Before we move onto the offensive and fielding numbers we should look at their MVP scores. For those that are reading for the first time, players get one point for each top 25 finish, three points for every top ten finish, five points for every top five finish, and ten points for every MVP award. Unfortunately, modern players like Rice and Brock have a harder time in the expansion era than Medwick and Kiner, but we can get a general idea.

  Top 25 Top 10 Top 5 MVP Points
Jim Rice 2 0 5 1 37
Joe Medwick 4 1 2 1 27
Lou Brock 4 4 1 0 21
Ralph Kiner 1 3 2 0 20

It’s difficult to be too hard on Kiner. He played on a last place team for most of his career, so even in an eight team league it was going to be hard for him to garner votes. Still, he played only ten seasons and got votes in six of them. That’s not half bad. Brock wasn’t exactly a typical MVP candidate and that can be seen in only one top five finish in his career. Unlike with playoff performance, Jim Rice propels to the front of the line with his five top five finishes and one MVP.

Moreover, his MVP was well deserved in 1978. Rice was legitimately one of the best hitters in baseball in a ten year period between 1977 and 1986. Medwick and Rice were very similar in that regard. Medwick’s triple crown was enough to get him an MVP as well. So, of our four extra tests, we have finished three of them. We will see our last test when we look at the offensive numbers.

Offensive Numbers

  OPS+ Rbaser OW% wRC+ wOBA BPO
Ralph Kiner 149 0 .731 147 .427 1.003
Joe Medwick 134 1 .700 133 .393 .805
Jim Rice 128 5 .628 128 .375 .791
Lou Brock 109 78 .598 109 .336 .765

This is not the same bases per out that we saw before. To be a little more complete we included stolen bases as a part of the total bases which definitely helped Brock. We could assign points here, but there is very little separation between Medick, Ricke, and Brock. Kiner comes way out ahead across the board offensively. Offensively, Kiner and Medwick are a step ahead of the other two.

Rice in particular was called a dangerous hitter throughout his career. I’m not quite sure what that means. The numbers bare out that he was definitely a good hitter overall, but I’m not sure the reputation matches the numbers. This because he lacked the walks that others had and also grounded into more double plays than most guys. The combination was that he created more outs than the average guy. Even though this is overly simplistic, here is how each player ranked according to our MVP test, black ink, postseason, and BPO test.

  Black Ink MVP Playoff BPO Total
Joe Medwick 2 2 2 2 8
Ralph Kiner 1 4 4 1 10
Jim Rice 3 1 3 3 10
Lou Brock 4 3 1 4 12

This doesn’t say anything definitively yet, but it is beginning to paint a picture. Without all of the relevant information, it is an incomplete picture. We need defense to make this a complete picture, but even without defense I am beginning to make up my own mind. The beauty is that everyone is allowed to come to their own conclusion.

Fielding Numbers 

Joe Medwick 45 -4.8 47 44.2 0
Jim Rice 24 -8.0 26 35.6 0
Ralph Kiner -40 -10.7 -36 25.1 0
Lou Brock -51 -16.8 -43 49.0 0

Wait a minute, I thought that fast guys were supposed to be great outfielders. Well, that obviously isn’t always the case. Playing outfield also requires a strong throwing arm and it requires anticipation and the ability to make the first step in the right direction. Slower guys like Medwick and Rice had those skills where Brock did not. I hate to say any player was a mistake, but Brock appears to be one.

Why was he selected? Well, that one is simple. He had more than 3000 hits and was the all-time leading base stealer when he was inducted. Having 3000 hits shouldn’t be an automatic qualifier. A bunch of steals doesn’t have the same value as getting on base or getting to more balls defensively in the outfield. Outs are the blood currency of the sport. The ability to avoid them offensively and get more of them defensively are paramount. Extra bases are nice, but they aren’t as important as we otherwise thought. Then again, his postseason record was sterling, so a yes vote is defensible on that level, but anyone that quotes hits or steals may want to check again.